Assessing environmental impacts and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
Szymon Sobek, Silesian University of Technology (SUT), Gliwice, Poland
One of the highest priority EU goals is to protect the environment and fight against climate change. Within this framework, the environmental cost of any product, service, or activity must be assessed. Life-C project aims to prepare students and professionals across all activity sectors to become true agents of change, by providing them with knowledge and tools to address their future choices and decisions minimizing environmental impacts. The project will develop a specific course on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), based on innovative teaching methodologies. The general objective of the project is to minimize the environmental, economic, and social impact of the products and activities on future economies and industries. The partners propose to contribute to reaching this objective by raising Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) awareness, providing an e-learning LCA course, available on a devoted e-learning platform, for international students of engineering and economic faculties, infusing the required technical and scientific knowledge for understanding the sustainability of production processes and technologies with an LCT approach, to support the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals n. 11 “sustainable cities and communities” and n. 12 “responsible production and consumption”. All three dimensions of sustainability – environmental,economic, and social – are addressed.
The project is coordinated by the Silesian University of Technology (SUT), in Poland. The partners of the projects are Niccolò Cusano University (Unicusano), in Italy, Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (LUT), in Finland, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), in Greece
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a vital tool used to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with all stages of a product’s life cycle, from raw material extraction to disposal or recycling. By providing a comprehensive overview of environmental impacts, LCA helps decision-makers in industries, governments, and academia implement more sustainable practices and policies. The application of LCA is essential in identifying key environmental hotspots, improving product design, and ensuring resource efficiency.
A significant strength of LCA lies in its systematic approach to assessing impacts across multiple stages. However, due to the complexity of life cycle systems, LCA outcomes are often influenced by numerous variables, assumptions, and data inputs. This inherent variability underscores the importance of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in enhancing the robustness and reliability of LCA studies.
Why Sensitivity Analysis is crucial for LCA
Sensitivity analysis evaluates how changes in specific parameters affect the overall LCA results. By identifying the most influential variables, practitioners can prioritize data collection efforts, refine assumptions, and better allocate resources for improving data quality. For instance, in biomass gasification systems, factors such as feedstock composition, reaction temperature, and conversion efficiency significantly influence the final environmental outcomes. Sensitivity analysis enables researchers to determine which of these factors have the greatest impact, ensuring that future research and development efforts are strategically focused.
Sensitivity analysis also helps decision-makers by demonstrating the robustness of conclusions under varying conditions. For instance, if a minor change in energy consumption dramatically alters the environmental footprint, it signals that further investigation or process improvement is required. By revealing these critical points, sensitivity analysis strengthens the credibility of LCA-based recommendations.
The role of Uncertainty Analysis
Uncertainty analysis complements sensitivity analysis by quantifying the degree of confidence in LCA outcomes. Data gaps, variability in material properties, and assumptions about future scenarios are common sources of uncertainty in LCA. By applying techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations, probability distributions, or scenario modeling, researchers can assess the range of potential outcomes and identify the probability of specific environmental impacts.
Uncertainty analysis is especially important for decision-making in dynamic industries such as energy, where technological advancements and market fluctuations can significantly alter environmental performance. For example, in molten hydroxide biomass gasification systems, assumptions about energy inputs, process efficiency, or emission rates can introduce substantial uncertainty. By quantifying this uncertainty, stakeholders can make informed decisions that account for variability and risk.
Incorporating sensitivity and uncertainty analyses into LCA studies greatly enhances the reliability, transparency, and utility of the results. These methods provide stakeholders with a clearer understanding of the factors driving environmental impacts and the degree of confidence they can place in the study’s conclusions. As industries increasingly adopt sustainable practices, employing robust LCA methodologies with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses will be crucial for developing effective environmental strategies and achieving long-term sustainability goals.
